Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Biases and Economic Development

Perhaps the largest single factor impacting any economy in the United States are emotions. This is because while infrastructure, education, etc all have an impact most U.S. economies have the opportunity to attract educated people and have fairly good infrastructure in place already. Further in a democracy the type and amount of infrastructure created and educational opportunities available come from the decisions which people make.


It's often times people's biases that get in the way of good economic growth, biases which are difficult to overcome and so need to be mitigated by those trying to improve the economy. Even for those doing careful analysis biases can present a serious problem. McKinsey points out that “good analysis and good judgment don’t naturally lead to good decisions as the process is also crucial.” In other words, no matter how smart and capable you are, you don’t necessarily make good strategic choices. So you must “Never trust your gut. You need to take your gut feeling as an important data point, but then you have to consciously and deliberately evaluate it.”


You can see my list of biases for businesses 

List of Biases

Bias Blind Spot
Everyone sees themselves as less biased than they actually are, as less biased than other people. People will often think of those who disagree with them as stupid or worse, evil and uncaring. This seems to especially hold true for economic matters. So people continue to make the same mistakes over and over again because their brains tend to be structured the same way as those of other humans. 

Anchoring
This bias could also be called the bubble making bias, it's the tenancy for people to obsess over a single piece information. It's the reason so much of economic development became focused on increasing property prices, the reason so many bad businesses receive government loans in industries that should otherwise be growing. 

Confirmation Bias
There is a tendency to see anything which occurs as confirming existing beliefs. In other words people's world view determines their beliefs, and reality has little to do with it. This is a problem because many of the generally held economic assumptions are wrong but no matter how often they fail to work, fail to prove fruitful people will continue to believe that they are effective. We see this in Argentina where no matter how often the economic system crashes the people still support those who back the failed system.
This is why diversity can be an important part of a strong economy, because new ideas can help prevent the reuse of failed ideas over and over again. The danger when planning for diversity is to presume that alternative ideas come from demographic diversity. However, demographics are not an indicator of diversity in thinking; thus, it’s important then to think about psychographic rather than demographic diversity within a community.

Irrational Escalation
People grow obsessed with recovering the investments they make from their project and so the more time and money people put into a project the more likely they'll be to continue to invest in it even if its clear the project is failing. This results in more wasted money and more wasted effort that could have been better applied to something else.


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Negativity Bias 
When people have a negative experience with something, they will tend to give more weight to that experience than they will to positive experiences or statistics. So if a tactic is normally sound, but you’ve had a bad experience with it, you are less likely to try it again regardless of the likelihood of statistical success or changes in the environment. This bias can be especially useful in predicting what your competitors will likely do or how they’ll react as it may be possible to see which of their tactics have failed and so predict that they’ll be slower to respond to similar tactics. 

Normalcy Bias 
People tend to focus only on what their experience has shown them is likely to happen and so won’t plan for disasters which haven’t happened. This, for example, is one reason why people have tended to underestimate the impact of some of the major disasters we’ve had recently. It’s also why many businesses underestimated the impact which the recession, changes in technology, gas prices, and globalization would have on their business. 

Status Quo Bias 
Many people don’t like change. Once they’ve established a rhythm, they want it to continue on forever. This is why so many strategies remain rigid even as the world changes around them depleting their resources. 


Ambiguity Effect
When people avoid doing something new or something because they feel they don’t have all the information for it, they have fallen victim to this bias. It’s important to remember that there is no such thing as perfect information, and you have to do something different from what’s being done in order to pull ahead of your competitors. 

An example of this is the reason companies were slow to begin running Internet marketing campaigns. Indeed, most companies have only recently jumped in even though the cost of search ads, for example, has more than tripled. Any business which had tried this method of marketing sooner was more successful. 


Ostrich Effect 
I have noticed that almost all the businesses which started to slide into the red would tend to ignore what was happening and continue to pretend that they didn’t need to immediately implement some form of emergency strategy to deal with the problem until it was too late. This is why so many music retailers and book retailers seemed to ignore the impact that the Internet would have on their strategies until it was too late. It is also why so many businesses ignored the impact the recession was having on their strategy until it was too late. You cannot hide from a negative situation, nor can you assume that a negative situation will simply turn itself around. You need to be adaptable, to be able to change your structure in order to remain in business.


Disregard of Regression Toward the Mean
We tend to believe that whatever situation is occurring is likely to continue to occur no matter what is statistically likely. This is why we presume that we should continue to gamble during a winning streak, for example, even though we eventually have to lose and our chances of winning are the same regardless. This is also why people continued to think that the housing market would continue to increase in value forever even though most industries will eventually have to level off or decrease in value. Never assume that growth or other impressive events will simply continue on. You must plan to find ways to replace existing growth or deal with problems that arise because they will eventually happen.

Robotics, 3d Printing and Productivity

Every decade the world seems to change faster then it had the previous decade, and every year people worry about the impact of the next round of technological innovations on the work force. They worry that manufacturing jobs will vanish with robotics, that the internet will destroy service jobs.

The only limit to the amount of money which exists is a lack of human productivity and innovation.

It would be wrong to say that such changes do not bring challenges, problems and even pain to some. It's important to realize, however, that such changes decrease the cost of products, lower cost products means that people are better able to afford more things. Worstall in an article in "Forbes" points out that

 "there is no shortage of human wants and desires. If we’re getting as many physical goods from our 3-D printers as we desire then there’s no shortage of non-physical goods, services if you like, that that same displaced labour can now go and provide. This is also known as us all getting richer as we get those new services plus the manufactured things to enjoy. But the second, and clinching, argument is about cost. We will obviously only use our 3-D printers to create everything if they are cheaper than the more traditional manufacturing methods....  Yup, a fall in the costs of things is equal to, is by definition the equivalent of, a rise in real wages. So if 3-D printers do take off it can only be because, by definition, they make us all richer. And worrying about low wages when we are, again by definition, raising them really does seem most odd indeed."

As people are able to afford more things more easily many new jobs become feasible. Social Media employees which help to build a customers brand and improve relationships with employees while currently a job which is limited to a few experts has the potential to grow to a basic sales position which can be filled by more employees. The customization of cars, hand made furniture, etc all become more feasible as career choices as wealth increases and the cost of living decreases by comparison.

There are many service, handcraft, specialty manufacturing and farming jobs which can grow as wealth increases. 

China's Landing Part 1

China's Cabinet has promised to work harder to insure stability in the worlds second largest economy but its hard to imagine what they could do in the short term.

China's economic problems are growing and are likely worse then they are letting anyone realize, their electrical consumption is decreasing so slowly that one could presume that their economy isn't growing any longer despite what they are claiming. There are many countries which have lied about their economy in the past so theirs no reason to presume that China isn't lying as well.

Those attempting to improve China's economy are faced with a series of conundrums;

1-Real Estate
Real Estate Prices are dropping in China, and while some of these drops are happening because the government is trying to keep the prices of housing affordable China wouldn't be trying to increase lending in real estate if this industries decline didn't concern them. Even more than the United States Real Estate is important to much of what has fueled the Chinese economy as local governments have used the sale of Real Estate to fund Trillions of dollars of infrastructure projects, so as the real estate industry dries up Chinese companies and local governments could risk bankruptcy.
The central government would run into problems if it had to bail out too many businesses and local governments as the bonds and dollars they hold help to keep the Chinese currency from rising and help to stabilize the United States, thus too many bailouts could hurt their exports

2-Exports
As Chinese wages and energy costs rise the cost of manufacturing decreases in other countries due to the increased unemployment, productivity and new technologies such as robotics and 3D Printing. Further many of China's export markets are loosing buying power which in turns means that China will be able to export less goods. Finally there has long been mistrust issues associated with Chinese goods; toys with lead, tooth paste with anti-freeze, drywall that releases toxic gasses. China has overcome mistrust through growth and low prices which spurned euphoria and allowed many to overlook these concerns but if the Euphoria cracks it may cause a rush to the exits.
China could try to deal with this by increasing local consumption, but to do this its own people must come to trust Chinese goods this in turn requires a certain amount of Government regulation which could make manufacturing too expensive more quickly then trust could be established.

3-False Lure of Infrastructure
China is attempting to fix many of its economic problems through infrastructure spending. Such spending, however, is a rarely a good strategy as it simply shifts money from one place to another and because of a lack of long term planning only occasionally creates any real value. Further once infrastructure spending ceases as it eventually must the economy is still left with the short fall the spending was meant to plug and the government has less options to change things as it has run out of money to do so.



Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Types of Innovation for Economic Development

Innovation is anything which you develop which better helps you to achieve your goals which means that there are many types of innovation. The Monitor Group has categorized Innovation into ten types which can be seen here. I would highly recommend reviewing these categories of innovation to help refine your organizational innovation efforts as understanding them can greatly enhance your innovation efforts by focusing your efforts.

However when reviewing these types of innovations you should remember that there are two entities which you are trying to develop - the economy and your economic development organization. Thus you are looking to come up with both economic and organizational innovations. Because the Monitor Group has done such a good job developing organization innovations I'll only discuss the Economic Innovations in this article.

Economic Model 
The structure and mix of the industries in an economy. An economies Economic Model is very heavily based on Comparative Advantages. It's important to keep in mind that a successful community needs to bring money into it and so it  not only has successful retail, office, and or manufacturing businesses it has successful people Therefor your economic model can be based not only on developing businesses but on developing a workforce which can get jobs, even outside the community so that they can bring money back into the community.

Networks and Alliances
An economies relationship with other economies, NGO's, Governments, etc. This innovation category is complex because it involves both your organization building relationships and the communities themselves interacting with each other. A community near a residential area with a lot of families for example might develop a series of family events with their excess space. 

Community Network 
The way the members of a community communicate with each other and get involved in the community. 

Enabling Process
The services and infrastructure which support the people and businesses who are vital to the economy. This category can include schools for children, workshops for businesses, Micro-Equity Networks, etc.  

Company Integration
How you link the many diverse aspects of an economy together. Communities with theaters, zoos, or other major institutions could try to get these to cross promote with restaurants in the area. A community could also have a number of interior decoration businesses and custom furniture makers. Further events could be held in which people who buy from one store get discounts from another.

Goals
The goals for the economy help to determine what programs are important and how success is measured. Gauges of happiness, satisfaction and more can be used in addition to incomes of individuals within the community and success of the businesses within the community.

Brand
The way people perceive a community, how those in charge of promoting a community communicate the benefits of living, shopping and starting a businesses in it.








Thursday, May 17, 2012

Economic Skunk Works and Beta Programs

There is a lot of risk inherent in Economic Development, both for the region being developed and for the people trying to improve the economy. When jobs are at stake and bureaucracy weighs down an idea it can be very difficult to try something new, to test the untested. This however is exactly what needs to be done in order to make economic development efforts successful. The world is changing too quickly for all the same techniques to work as well, and they or may not work at all. Further with unemployment as high as it is there is clearly room for improvement in economic development efforts, room to find better programs for improving the economy.

In order to find new effective ways to develop the economy those organizations involved in economic development should when possible create "Skunk Works" like teams and Beta Programs.

Skunk Works is the research and innovative branch of Lockheed Martin which is tasked with developing innovations. It is a group of highly knowledgeable, creative and skilled people who are free to develop new ideas and test new concepts. Similar to this concept is the idea of Intrapreneurship - a person or team who develops start up programs within a larger structure. Google has one of these programs in which it allows employees to spend a certain portion of their time working on unique and new ideas of their own. Those programs that get developed often enter a Beta phase in which they receive a limited public release in order to further test them.

In economic development multiple ideas could be tested in small ways in order to gauge the impact a larger more expensive program would have. This way an economic development organization could experiment with many projects to see which ones are the most effective for their needs.

Over Regulated

It has been estimated that all the regulations on businesses cost 1.75 trillion per year or nearly $6000 per person. This is enough money that if it was freed up companies could hire every unemployeed person in America at a wage of over $60,000 each. This amount could also be used to buy health insurance for everyone who didn't have it. Of course given the way money flows it's likely that they would only hire a small portion of the unemployed but the point still stands that regulation costs are incredibly high.


This is not to say that some regulations aren't important because while the free market will regulate on its own to an extent cooperation's will try to get away with as much as they can. However, many regulations do little to protect consumers and others are arbitrary.
Further even some seemingly good regulations could be considered bad when weighed against their negative outcome. A regulation which protects a few people from getting salmonella but causes many more to be without a job and medical insurance can't be said to have a positive outcome. Because of this regulations need to be reexamined and weighed against the problems they cause or at times groups of regulations should all be scrapped and new regulations determined.


Regulations Need Innovations
Regulations have a goal, to insure that products are healthy for example, and anything with a goal can benefit from innovation. New regulations need to be developed which meet the need to insure healthy products without increasing costs.


For example recent regulations require toy companies to get their products tested to insure they are lead free are good in that they provide children with lead free toys but instead of expensive tests for every small toy company a toy company could opt to purchase their materials only from suppliers that are known be be lead free. After all it's not hard to find lead free plastic, paint, and wood in this country so local U.S. manufacturers. could easily provide receipts that they were purchasing from those who had already been lead free in order to prove that they were. 


In restaurants Bacteria is the concern; not sink size, equipment, etc. So innovations could be developed to audit restaurants kitchens and foods to insure that they don't have too much bad bacteria. Such testing could allow audits of food production facilities to occur more quickly, would allow businesses to open an run with less cost while meeting the actual goal of the regulations.


There are of course many possible innovations to reduce the cost of regulations while maintaining the safety of the public, so methods need to be set up to discover these methods through suggestion wiki's, rewards for programs that succeed in saving money, and when possible innovation teams.



Cost of Infrastructure

A new sidewalk in Philadelphia which is intended to beautify a commercial corridor and thus help the businesses within it attract more customers can cost over a million dollars or about $15,000 per business the sidewalk is intended to help. Pedestrian Street Lights also cost about $15,000 per business. Meanwhile these same businesses are struggling to get loans in order to expand, their facades are a wreck, and many of the buildings along the street remain empty.

The amount spent on these beautification projects would have been enough to send the business owners to a community college, to help small manufacturing plants secure equipment so the community could start exporting again, to fix the facades of every business on the corridor, or to do any number of other things.

This is not to say that infrastructure projects aren't ever cost effective, sometimes they are worth a lot. In the same place as the sidewalks were beautified internet was unreliable and slow, underground fires stopped traffic and bursting water pipes flooded the streets and businesses above. A little ways away holes were appearing in sidewalks which weren't repaired, holes which dropped ten or more feet down into the drainage system. Fixing the IT infrastructure, the failing water pipes, and the holes in the sidewalk may also have been very helpful. None of these were done however.

My points are these;

1-Greater care needs to be taken when selecting projects.
2-Not all governmental projects need to be infrastructure projects which a few create temporary jobs with some of the money and use the rest to import materials manufactured in outside economies.

When planning infrastructure things need to be put into perspective. For example the cost of a light rail project might be enough to build apartments for every person who would have taken the rail so that they would be closer to work for example. While there are many reasons not to do this such a perspective allows us to way not only the benefits and costs but to try to think of other ways to approach a problem.

A New Structure for Business Assocations

A standard tactic for helping to develop community economies is to build a business association which is structured almost exactly like every other business association. At first this new business association creates excitement as entrepreneurs hope that the association will help them get new projects done. In the first few meetings the business owners try to figure out what they should do, and a few of them dominate the discussion and work on the projects. Soon most of the businesses stop attending all together. Eventually the business association is a meeting between one or two officers (The VP and Treasurer often stop attending the meetings) and one or two other businesses, while the association itself does very little. This is a huge problem for economic development organizations which rely on the associations to assist them in their efforts and provide them with the opinions of the businesses in an area.

A New Structure is Needed
Nearly all business associations are structured the same way high school governments are with a President, a VP, a Secretary and a Treasurer (a job which in many associations does nothing but sign checks and say how much is in a bank account). This isn't how a government or business is structured, indeed very few effective organizations are structured in this manner.

Structure like a business
Corporations are structured with specific departments which have specific tasks, a.k.a. a Chief Financial Officer who finds new sources of revenue for the organization, develops budgets, and allocates money. A Chief Marketing Officer who comes up with and executes promotional strategies to increase profits.
Similarly a Business Association could have a Financial Officer which searches for grants and sources of revenue, a Marketing Officer who comes up with plans to promote a region and which helps build a relationships with the members of the community, a Government Relations Officer which makes certain businesses know about new laws impacting them and which voices concerns to the government officials.
Each of these leaders could have their own set of volunteer business owners which makes and executes plans and reports to the other businesses which can choose to overrule a plan or who can elect new officers to head each of these department but which will likely allow each entity within the association do its job.

Wiki Structure
With modern technology a structure could be set up in which there was no actual leadership, rather any business with an idea could post it to the Associations Forum, Wiki, etc, and email the others. The businesses could than all vote on it. Such a system would of course be much looser but in some cases more ideas would be generated when every member can post them and when no one person controls the structure.

The Economic Development Organization
The development organization in an area should help to found a business association with a list of recommended projects already ready for the business association to take on. The businesses can of course come up with their own plans and projects but typically they will want to have projects to work on from the time they start.