Wednesday, May 23, 2012

China's Landing Part 1

China's Cabinet has promised to work harder to insure stability in the worlds second largest economy but its hard to imagine what they could do in the short term.

China's economic problems are growing and are likely worse then they are letting anyone realize, their electrical consumption is decreasing so slowly that one could presume that their economy isn't growing any longer despite what they are claiming. There are many countries which have lied about their economy in the past so theirs no reason to presume that China isn't lying as well.

Those attempting to improve China's economy are faced with a series of conundrums;

1-Real Estate
Real Estate Prices are dropping in China, and while some of these drops are happening because the government is trying to keep the prices of housing affordable China wouldn't be trying to increase lending in real estate if this industries decline didn't concern them. Even more than the United States Real Estate is important to much of what has fueled the Chinese economy as local governments have used the sale of Real Estate to fund Trillions of dollars of infrastructure projects, so as the real estate industry dries up Chinese companies and local governments could risk bankruptcy.
The central government would run into problems if it had to bail out too many businesses and local governments as the bonds and dollars they hold help to keep the Chinese currency from rising and help to stabilize the United States, thus too many bailouts could hurt their exports

2-Exports
As Chinese wages and energy costs rise the cost of manufacturing decreases in other countries due to the increased unemployment, productivity and new technologies such as robotics and 3D Printing. Further many of China's export markets are loosing buying power which in turns means that China will be able to export less goods. Finally there has long been mistrust issues associated with Chinese goods; toys with lead, tooth paste with anti-freeze, drywall that releases toxic gasses. China has overcome mistrust through growth and low prices which spurned euphoria and allowed many to overlook these concerns but if the Euphoria cracks it may cause a rush to the exits.
China could try to deal with this by increasing local consumption, but to do this its own people must come to trust Chinese goods this in turn requires a certain amount of Government regulation which could make manufacturing too expensive more quickly then trust could be established.

3-False Lure of Infrastructure
China is attempting to fix many of its economic problems through infrastructure spending. Such spending, however, is a rarely a good strategy as it simply shifts money from one place to another and because of a lack of long term planning only occasionally creates any real value. Further once infrastructure spending ceases as it eventually must the economy is still left with the short fall the spending was meant to plug and the government has less options to change things as it has run out of money to do so.



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