Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Our Beliefs Determine Our Reality

Case Study: Global Warming and the Weather

Many might ask how it is that even when faced with an ever growing mountain of evidence some still don't believe global warming is real? The problem is that evidence isn't usually what makes people believe what they believe. There are a number of natural biases built into humans that cause them to interpret data to fit their pre-exisiting beliefs and desires while avoiding data which would challenge them. Of course if you think I'm just going to accuse one side of this problem you don't know me either.
Those who believe in Global Warming are quick to blame every hurricane, every tornado, every blizzard on Global Warming. No matter how often scientists say that global warming wasn't responsible for the weather event. Yes many bad weather events are caused or made worse by global warming, but blaming every weather event on it is ludicrousness. The most deadly Typhoon in history hit Vietnam over a hundred years ago.

Here are the highlights from the Geophysics Fluid Dynamics Lab;

1-It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet properly modeled (e.g., aerosol effects).

This is not to say that global warming won't cause hurricanes and make them worse, in the next couple of decades, as their report goes on to say that;

2-Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size. 

3-There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the numbers of very intense hurricanes in some basins—an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity.  This increase in intense storm numbers is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical storms.

4-Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause hurricanes to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, with a model-projected increase of about 20% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center. 

So as usual the far ends of both sides of an issue are wrong about that issue, because they both ignore facts.


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